Archive Article: Sydney – Capital City Of The South Pacific. 29 Nov 02.
December 27, 2008

There has been a great deal of controversy recently about a report on the possible future size of the Australian populations. What ever will be the future, Sydney will be the capital city of the South Pacific.

The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) has compiled a report for the Department of Immigration on the options to the year 2050 for Australia’s population, technology, resources and environment. I was one of the people interviewed for the project.

Some of the report discusses the options for migration. Governments are very hesitant of discussing immigration. For example, the Australian Treasurer, this year – for the first time – released a Budget Paper on the costs of aging population. But the Paper was flawed because it failed to mention how changing levels of immigration could affect the economic cost of an aging Australian population. “Immigration” is too a hot a topic for Treasury to deal with.

The CSIRO report is a detailed forecast of what could happen to Australia in the context of the three viewpoints in the current immigration debate.

The first point of view is what I would call the “environmentalist” argument. It wants no further immigration. If this were to happen, then the population would peak at 20 million and then go down to 17 million in 2100. The good news is that there would be less pressure on the environment. The bad news would the onset of economic problems, especially as the population declines.

The second viewpoint – which is effectively that of the main political parties – is to maintain the current policy of about 70,000 immigrants per year. The population would stabilize at about 25 million people in 2050. But land and water degradation would be a problem.

The third viewpoint – which is that of the business community – is to allow the entry of 130,000 people per year, with the figure rising as the population itself rises to over 300,000 people. This would be getting the country back to the immigration levels of the 1950s and 1960s. The population would rise to 32 million in 2050 and 50 million in 2100, with a higher proportion of younger people. There would be considerable environmental problems but there would be the highest economic growth of the three options.

I really don’t think that the first option is a “goer”. Australia already has a labour shortage – and the shortage shows up in the professions requiring youthful energy: nurses and teachers. Australia will have to recruit professionals from overseas.

Therefore, the choice is between the second and third options. In either event, Sydney becomes the capital of the South Pacific. Indeed, in the third option, Sydney will have a population in 2100 of 10 million. A challenge, then, is how to make the most of Sydney’s dominant role in the South Pacific.

Wesley Mission has been heavily involved in South Pacific affairs for over a century. For example, it has very active South Pacific congregations here in Sydney. It is also involved in some foreign aid projects. It is setting an example for others to follow.

By all means give more attention to Asia – but let us not forget to also look to the opportunities in the South Pacific.

Broadcast On Friday 29th November 2002 On Radio 2GB’s “Brian Wilshire Programme” At 9pm.