Archive Article: The Arc Of Crisis. 8th Nov 02.
December 27, 2008

There is a great deal of attention to the prospect of war in Iraq and the continuing violence in Afghanistan. But it is worth recalling that there is an entire region that is in crisis.

I have just returned from the annual conference of The Club of Rome, the global think tank. This year’s conference took place in Turkey, at the country’s first private university – the Bilkent University. With all the debate in Australia over private higher education, it is worth noting that this new university is already one of the country’s finest and it is one of the most modern in Europe. The Turks are obviously making a success of private higher education – but that is another story.

This year’s Club of Rome conference had a session, which I chaired, on the “Arc of Crisis”. The “arc” runs east from Turkey across the southern edge of the former Soviet Union, across the northern part of the Indian sub-continent (including Afghanistan), and finishes on China’s western border. It consists of countries with large Islamic populations. Just the western end of that arc alone – around the Black Sea – consists of about 300 million people.

The Conference provided a very useful overview of the tensions within the “arc”. First, this is a region of growing populations. It was one of the ironies of the old Soviet Union that the Russian population had zero population growth, while its southern Islamic territories had booming populations. The old Soviet Union was having problems being 100 per cent communist and also 30 per cent Islamic.

Second, the region has immense problems clearing up from the old Soviet era. The Soviet Union banned the type of environmentalist non-governmental organizations that have done so much to force up environmental standards in the West. Thus the Soviet authorities had appalling practices and they knew they could get away with them.

For example, the Aral Sea – which used to be one of the world’s largest inland water systems – has disappeared. The water was drained away by poor irrigation methods. One the speakers explained how a person can now walk out for 20 miles across the beach and see stranded fishing vessels resting on the sand, with the tide having gone out – permanently. This is now called the “cemetery of dead ships”.

The Aral Sea was also a testing ground for Soviet chemical and biological weapons and so there will be continuing health hazards as these remnants are encountered. Communism has long but the consequences will long remain.

Third, the region is important for global energy security. Now that the Soviet Union has collapsed, foreign oil corporations can enter the countries for exploration purposes. This region could become a new “Middle East” in terms of its contribution to the international oil market. However, the corporations are major economic entities and so have much leverage over poor countries in negotiations. There is concern that the countries could lose out in the negotiations.

Finally, on an optimistic note, the countries are now learning the value of networking, international co-operation and sharing ideas. Their populations are eager to learn new ways. Turkey – as a modern secular state – is a role model for them. They do not want to have their countries fall under the control of fundamentalist Islamic clerics who will hinder economic and social development.

Thus, the conference took place at an historic time, with these new countries just emerging onto the international scene.

Broadcast On Friday 8th November 2002 On Radio 2GB’s “Brian Wilshire Programme” At 9pm.