Pakistan’s Military Coup 15th October 1999
November 17, 2008
RADIO 2CBA FOCAL POINT COMMENTARY BROADCAST ON FRIDAY OCTOBER 15 1999 ON RADIO 2CBA FM.
This week’s military coup in Pakistan is a very serious blow for international peace and security on the Sub-Continent. But it may force some old enemies to work together to oppose the military rule of General Pervez Musharraf.
A major reason for the military coup was the Prime Minister’s dissatisfaction with the military’s performance in the conflict against India over Kashmir. This dispute is a bit like two old bald men fighting over a comb. But it arouses strong passions in both countries and Pakistan lost the latest round. The Prime Minister conceded defeat but the military resented his policy. He tried to sack the military – but instead they sacked him.
Unfortunately, both India and Pakistan now have rudimentary nuclear weapons. In theory, the world has moved closer to a nuclear war than at anytime since the 1962 Cuban missile crisis. There was little chance of war between the US and USSR because they fought in other countries (such as Vietnam). Their own territory was never under direct threat (except in 1962).
But a war in Kashmir would quickly spill over into Indian or Pakistani territory and their two capitals are geographically close to each other. Unlike the US and USSR, India or Pakistan could soon have their own soil directly threatened by invasion.
The US will therefore want to restrain the Pakistani military. One way of doing so is through the International Monetary Fund, where the US is the most important country.
Pakistan is vulnerable to foreign economic pressure because its economy is so weak. The economy was damaged by the policies of the deposed Prime Minister Mr Nawaz Sharif. But General Musharraf seems to have no clear vision at all for economic recovery.
Finally, other major countries in the region also have an interest in the Pakistan coup. General Musharraf will increase the support Pakistan gives to the campaign of the Islamic fundamentalist Taliban to take over the rest of Afghanistan. Russia is very worried about this increase in fundamentalist Islam so close to its border.
Iran is also concerned about Pakistan’s support for the Taliban. Iran supports the resistance struggle of Ahmad Shah Masood, who is the last remaining obstacle to the Taliban’s seizure of complete control over Afghanistan. Iran is a fundamentalist Islamic country but it has a different brand of Islam from the Taliban version.
Therefore three countries have a common concern about the ambitions of General Musharraf: the US, Russia and Iran. This is a very unusual combination.
Now that Pakistan looks like becoming more of a fundamentalist Islamic country, so other countries – including Iran – have worries about it.
This is all the more so since Pakistan is in the middle of a very important region. The oil-rich Caspian Basin is seen as the new “Middle East” by the oil companies. They will also put pressure on Pakistan not to destabilize the region.